It hardly seems conceiveable that it is fully four years ago now that Jacques Rogge said one word, 'London', which has already made such a huge difference to my life and our journey at Lane4.
Make no bones about it - I am crossing my fingers that Jacques Rogge's first word on openning the 2016 envelope is 'Chicago'. For two reasons. Firstly, on behalf of our North American business. Actually we share our office space in Princeton with US Rowing. I am certain our experience here to date will be a major source of value for us should Chicago win out.
Secondly - whether we like it nor not, the business and health of individual sports in the US drives the global sporting agenda. We now live in a world where golf is an Olympic sport, and it is critical for the less mainstream but in my view more truly Olympic sports that the US sports market continues to find a place for each of them. The Olympics is the pinnacle of achievement in sports like athletics, modern pentathlon, triathlon, track cycling and rowing. I was lucky enough to be in Beijing, and modern pentathlon held me captive more than I can ever imagine golf doing. I want the US public to feel the same in 2016 if the viability and health of the 'traditional' Olympic sports are going to be preserved in an increasingly homogenous sporting landscape.
I did an interview this week with the Chicago business press in advance of the IOC decision. It's for a supplement to run (and only run) if Jacques gives them the nod. It felt strange to be debating whether Chicago could reach the $1.3bn sponsorship revenue they're expected to generate from the sponsorship.. it wasn't that long ago I was answering the same question for London!
My view? Irrespective of the economy Chicago can hit the number. However they will need to recognise from the start that London 2012 has changed the world of sponsorship for good. LOCOG have done a very good job thus far in a tough market.
I imagine domestic sponsorship for a Chicago Games will be a $80m - $150m corporate investment, with a need to pay back over 4-6 years. That's not a marketing investment figure in this market. Potential sponsors will be using the same disciplines as if they were buying a company of that size. It's not a world of viewing figures, it's a world of business models - revenue growth and cost savings, discounted cash flows. In many ways its the world of a venture capitalist - can I turn this asset around to generate a return over 4 years. LOCOG has been successful thus far because they have recognised that very early on. As it stands, in my view the US marketing industry is not set up to cope in the same way.
September, as ever, brings the start of the business planning process for the year ahead. Much as I enjoy the continual to-ing and fro-ing of a busy office, sometimes there's nothing better than a long early morning run, a strong coffee, a blocked out diary and a blank excel spreadsheet to work with. In case you're wondering (!), we start with some trend-based forecasting at group level, and then compare this with detail from each of our regions and business strands.
As we grow, our planning has become more rigorous, and planning for 2010 is a good test. The devil is definitely in the detail - exchange rates, property interest rates and so on are increasingly critical parts of our jigsaw, and yet tougher than ever to predict. Even my currency trading friends in the City don't have a clue which way things are moving. Gut feel and instinct have a place in planning even in the FTSE.
Actually this year of all years there is not a single cost line that does not have an interesting question sitting behind it. Take IT. Will it really be 2010 when we'll really be able to halve our IT costs by binning the laptops and phones to move over to one device? When will we need to move to the 'cloud'? Like all businesses our size, we're increasingly aware of the balance sheet as well as the P&L this year. The principle is to remain cautious, while also setting Lane4 up for the next six years. Opportunities, not threats.
Given this, of course the spreadsheets are only part of the planning process. There will be decisions to make in the next few months where gut feel will be worth as much if not more than a theoretical spreadsheet answer. Lane4 is a 'heart' as well as 'head' business - our job is to marry the two.
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